# 59. Disaster Biology [evolution, evolutionary psychology]

EV     EP     

Red, theory; black, fact.

• The habitat is a unit of selection, leading to group selection.
• Much of evolution proceeds by an accumulation of founder effects, especially altruism in sexually reproducing species.
• Opportunities for colonization of recently-emptied habitats are ephemeral.
• Under disaster-prone conditions, this leads to selection pressure for migrant production and evolvability (i.e., a high rate of evolution, especially founder-effect evolution).
• Language diversification in humans is an evolvability adaptation.
• It works by preserving genetic founder effects from dilution by late-coming migrants, whose reproduction is held back by the difficulties of learning a new language. 
• Xenophobia and persistent ethnicity markers (PEMs) can be explained in the same way.
• The spread of linguistic and  PEM novelties in a population is predicted to be especially fast in newly colonized, previously empty habitats. <09-17-2020: Alternatively, the linguistic novelties may start as a thick patois developed by an oppressed group in the home habitat prior to becoming refugees, as a way to make plans under the noses of the oppressing group.>
•  Refugee-producing adaptations sub serving dispersal can be called "tough altruism."
• Populations producing more refugees are more likely to colonize further empty habitats, a selective advantage.
• Disaster biology may be what is conceptually missing from theories of the origin of life (abiogenesis). 01-02-2020: i.e., the forerunners of the first cells may have been spores.>
• Photo by Purnomo Capunk on Unsplash

#58. The Rising Tide of Refugees [evolutionary psychology]

EP

Red, theory; black, fact.

Paradigm: dispersal

Population pressure and dispersal

Currently, we are seeing a troubling increase in refugee numbers globally. I link this to ever-rising human population numbers, which will be loosely correlated with rising population densities. (Loosely, because population density also depends on area.) Population density, in turn, will be the governing psychological factor, because it can be appraised on the basis of local sensory signals (probably multimodal) whereas absolute global numbers cannot. The basis of this hypothesis is the results of Calhoun's rodent experiments on overpopulation that he carried out in the fifties and sixties, which I am here extrapolating to humans, probably as Calhoun himself intended. I postulate that refugeehood sub serves in humans the ecological function of dispersal. The underlying mechanism would be what was called "instinct" back in the day, a term that I think may still be useful in getting into one's argument quickly.

Do we have an instinct to disperse?

"Instinct-" governed behaviors are understood to owe nothing to learning and to be solely determined by the genes, and thus by evolution. In humans, of course, this position lacks credibility, so I am here speaking of that portion of the causation of our behavior that is due to evolution and can be assumed to play a biasing role rather than a determining one.

In refugee stories, there always seems to be a dichotomy between the nasty, evil bad buys and the hapless, innocent displaced persons, but, of course, this is naive. The most likely situation is that the refugee-producing adaptation has an aggressor subroutine and a victim subroutine, both in the same genetically determined program, and we all have a copy of both hard wired into our brains. Essentially by chance, one is activated in some people, and the other in others, when population density rises, and the ancient drama begins anew.

Now here's my plan

Because therapy can be expected to be more easily delivered to the victims than to the aggressors, I suggest that we start with them in seeking solutions. Their part of the dispersal program is likely to make them overly reactive to harassment and overly apt to conclude that they have no option but to flee, when this is simply not true. A related phenomenon that I have observed could be called "defensive overreaction," in which the person jumps to the false conclusion that an elaborate, expensive solution to their problem is required. A reasonable person, however, will try all the simple solutions first, one by one, evaluate the effectiveness of each, and proceed to the next more complex solution only if the less complex solution fails. I suggest that persons considering flight should be counseled and supported in this strategy, in the hopes of stemming the global tide of refugees.

Photo by Saad Chaudhry on Unsplash